Reads — TAM, guided 3–5 year revenue CAGR
A larger runway with a credible guided rate scores higher. A guided rate with no market behind it does not.
threshold & weight — subscribers
Fair value of any stock, from SEC filings
The line you are looking at is the whole product.
One line is what a business is worth. The other is what it costs. Everything Fairvalue Radar does is work out the first number honestly enough that the gap means something.
In development. Two tools are finished and free today — the DCF calculator and the comparison of valuation tools. The scored product below is being built. Nothing here can be bought yet.
Four methods · one number · filed data
One business. Four ways to price it.
Each face is a method. They resolve into a single fair price.
Fair price
the figure itself — subscribers
Four methods go in. The sphere at the centre opens on one number.
ASML semiconductor equipment
SEC EDGAR · XBRL
7.21→11.08bn €
Free cash flow · multi-year path · C5
C1C2C3C4C5C6C7C8C9C10
Fair price000.00
Entry000.00
Stop000.00
Add zone000.00
Cash-flow figures are real, from ASML’s filed statements. The four levels are blurred placeholders — they are not calculated on this page. Nothing here is a recommendation.
Tell me when scoring is live
free tier planned · no card
Glossary · hover any term
How the number is built
What fair value is, and what it is not.
Fair value is what a business is worth based on what it earns and owns, rather than what it currently trades for. It is an estimate, not a fact — change the growth rate or the discount rate and the number moves. The gap between fair value and price is your .
| Method | What it prices | Reliable when | Breaks when |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | Future cash, discounted back to today | Cash flows are steady and the business is understandable | Growth and discount rate are guesses — small changes swing the answer |
| Multiples | Next twelve months of earnings, at a multiple | Earnings are stable and peers are genuinely comparable | Earnings are negative, or a one-off distorts the base |
| PEG | The price you pay per point of growth | Growth is positive and reasonably steady | Growth is near zero or negative — then it is broken, not cheap |
| NAV | What the assets would fetch, minus what is owed | The balance sheet holds real, saleable things | The value is intangible — software, brands, people |
No single method is right. Each is reconciled against the other three, and net asset value acts as the floor when the earnings case falls apart. If you want to feel how fragile one method is on its own, run one in the free DCF calculator and watch the sensitivity grid move.
What actually computes from filings
In August 2026 we ran all ten criteria against SEC EDGAR company facts for nineteen large-cap companies, to find out how much of the system filings alone can carry.
18 / 19Free cash flow computed in full, with multi-year history
12 / 19Incremental margin computed — blocked where gross profit is untagged
10 / 19Tagged remaining performance obligation under ASC 606
4 of 10Criteria filings cannot carry at all — they need estimates or IR pages
Runway, estimate revisions, guidance trajectory and the catalyst calendar are forward-looking, and forward-looking figures are never filed with the SEC. Those come from a paid estimates feed and from company IR pages. We would rather say that out loud than imply a filing can tell you something it cannot.
The gap
Orange is where the market disagreed with the method.
The chart behind this page is not decoration. The calm line is value, the restless one is price, and the shaded band between them is the only thing worth acting on — the stretch where a business was available for less than four methods said it was worth.
The method, in the open
Ten criteria, four families.
Each one has a shape. Click any card to read the rule behind it.
the business
the cash
the market
the price
Reads — Pricing power, switching costs, sustained ROIC as evidence
Written up per company, in words. Sustained returns and stable margins inform the judgment; they never make it alone.
threshold & weight — subscribers
Reads — Capital allocation, insider ownership, guidance credibility
Owners who allocate well, hold real stock and meet their own guidance score higher.
threshold & weight — subscribers
Reads — Incremental margin, period over period
Rising or steady incremental margin scores higher. Falling margin while revenue grows is penalised, not excused.
threshold & weight — subscribers
Reads — Operating cash flow minus capex, multi-year
A rising multi-year path beats a single strong year, every time.
threshold & weight — subscribers
Reads — NTM EPS and revenue revisions, 30 and 90 day
Upward revisions score higher. A run of them counts for more than a single move.
threshold & weight — subscribers
Reads — Remaining performance obligation, ASC 606
Contracted revenue growing faster than reported revenue scores higher. A blank is a blank, not a zero.
threshold & weight — subscribers
Reads — Quarterly guidance, four-quarter window
Consecutive raises score higher. One cut resets the count to nothing.
threshold & weight — subscribers
Reads — DCF, forward P/E × NTM EPS, PEG, P/TBV and NAV
Price below the reconciled fair price opens an entry. Above it, the name stays on the list and off the ticket.
threshold & weight — subscribers
Reads — Earnings dates, product dates, trial readouts, approvals
A catalyst with a date inside the horizon scores higher than a story with no clock on it.
threshold & weight — subscribers
Shown · paid · never published
Three levels, stated plainly.
Know which one you are getting before you type a card number.
Open to everyone
- The ten criteria and their directions
- The whole glossary, with formulas
- The DCF calculator and the tool comparison
- One company worked through, when it ships
On a subscription
- Every threshold, per criterion
- Fair price and entry, any company
- The -based stop
- Averaging-down zones
Never published
- Criterion weights
- How criteria interact
- The ATR multiplier
- Tranche sizing
Publish the weights and the system becomes a screen anyone can rebuild in an afternoon. That helps nobody who is paying for it.
Bring your own
Your model key. Your portfolio.
Neither one has to live here.
01 — Model key
Claude, GPT, or a model on your own machine
Filing summaries and moat write-ups will run on your key. Your prompts never pass through our inference, and you pay the provider directly. No key? The paid plan will include ours.
AnthropicOpenAIGoogleLocal
02 — Portfolio
Read-only broker link, or a plain CSV
Connect IBKR read-only, or drop in an export. Your holdings get scored against the same ten criteria, with allocation and alongside.
IBKReToroTrading 212DEGIRO
It reads. It never trades. The connection is scoped so placing an order is not something the product can do.
Questions people actually ask
Fair value, in plain terms.
If you are new to this, start here.
What is the fair value of a stock?
Fair value is what a business is worth based on what it earns and owns, rather than what it currently trades for. It is an estimate, not a fact: change the growth rate or the discount rate and the number moves. The gap between fair value and price is your margin of safety.
How does Fairvalue Radar calculate fair value?
Four methods run on the same filed data: a discounted cash flow, forward P/E against next-twelve-month earnings, PEG, and net asset value. Each produces its own number. The four are reconciled into one fair value, with the asset-based figure acting as a floor when the earnings case is weak.
Where does the data come from?
Fundamentals come from SEC EDGAR company facts, the XBRL tags companies file directly with the regulator, which are free and public. Prices come from a paid delayed feed. Every figure on a scorecard links back to the exact filing line it was taken from, so you can check it yourself.
Is a stock priced below fair value automatically a buy?
No. A discount only opens the question. Ten further criteria decide whether it is worth taking: runway, moat, management, scalability, cash flow, estimate revisions, backlog, guidance, valuation and catalysts. A cheap price on a deteriorating business is a warning, not an opportunity.
What can I use for free?
A two-stage DCF calculator and a comparison of ten valuation tools, both finished and free with no account. When the scored product ships, one company will be worked through end to end for free, permanently.
Do I need to know finance to use it?
No. Every abbreviation on the site opens its own explanation: what it measures, why it moves a decision, and the arithmetic behind it. The product is built for people who are still learning the vocabulary, not only for people who already have it.
Can Fairvalue Radar place trades or connect to my broker?
It reads, it never trades. You will be able to connect Interactive Brokers read-only, or upload a CSV from eToro, Trading 212 or DEGIRO to score your actual holdings. The connection is scoped so that placing an order is not something the product is technically able to do.
Is Fairvalue Radar investment advice?
No. Fairvalue Radar is research software. It does not know your circumstances, it never places an order, and nothing it outputs is a recommendation to buy or sell. What you do with the output is your decision and your risk.
Last updated 29 August 2026 · method and coverage figures reviewed each quarter
Planned pricing · not yet on sale
One price. Every company.
This is what it will cost when the scored product ships. Nothing here can be bought today, and none of these buttons takes a payment.
Free, permanently
€0
no card, no expiry
- Ten criteria and their directions
- One company worked through
- Full glossary and formulas
Monthly
€9.90
14 days free, no card
- Every company, every scorecard
- Fair price, entry and stop
- Averaging-down zones
- Portfolio scoring and alerts
Yearly
€99
ten paid, two free
- Everything monthly has
- Two months off
- Price locked while you stay
When it does go on sale the trial is 14 days, no card and no password — if the product cannot show its worth in a fortnight without holding your card details hostage, that is a product problem, not a payment one. The public register of every level ever published stays free whether you ever subscribe or not.
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