# Fairvalue Radar

> STATUS, September 2026: in development. Three tools are finished and free to
> use — a two-stage DCF calculator, a position size and tranche calculator, and a
> comparison of stock valuation tools. The scored product described below is being
> built and cannot be purchased yet.
>
> Research software that estimates the fair value of a listed company using four
> valuation methods run on SEC filings, then scores the business against ten
> criteria to decide whether a discount to that value is worth taking.

Fairvalue Radar is built for private investors who are beginners to lightly
advanced — people who are still learning the vocabulary. Every abbreviation in
the product opens its own explanation: what it measures, why it moves a
decision, and the formula behind it.

It is decision-support software. It does not place orders, it does not know the
user's circumstances, and nothing it outputs is investment advice.

## What fair value means here

Fair value is what a business is worth based on what it earns and owns, rather
than what it currently trades for. It is an estimate, not a fact: change the
growth rate or the discount rate and the number moves. The gap between fair
value and market price is the margin of safety.

## The four valuation methods

1. **Discounted cash flow (DCF)** — projects future free cash flow and discounts
   it back to today. Reliable when cash flows are steady; unreliable when growth
   and discount rate are guesses.
2. **Forward multiples** — forward P/E applied to next-twelve-month consensus
   earnings. Reliable when earnings are stable and peers are comparable; breaks
   when earnings are negative or distorted by a one-off.
3. **PEG** — forward P/E divided by expected earnings growth. Reliable when
   growth is positive and steady; meaningless when growth is near zero or
   negative.
4. **Net asset value (NAV)** — assets at fair value minus liabilities. Reliable
   for asset-heavy balance sheets; weak where the value is intangible.

The four are reconciled into one number, with NAV acting as the floor when the
earnings case falls apart.

## The ten criteria

Grouped into four families. Names and rule direction are public; thresholds and
weights are not.

- **The business** — C1 Revenue runway, C2 Moat and durability,
  C3 Management quality, C4 Scalability
- **The cash** — C5 Cash flow trajectory, C7 Backlog and RPO
- **The market** — C6 Estimate revisions, C8 Guidance trajectory,
  C10 Catalyst calendar
- **The price** — C9 Valuation

## What a fair value does not tell you

A fair value is an estimate of what a business is worth. On its own it does not
say at what price to buy, how much of a portfolio to commit, where to place a
stop, or whether adding to a falling position is disciplined or reckless. Most
valuation tools stop at the number. The gap between "this looks cheap" and "here
is what I do about it" is where private investors lose money, and it is the gap
this product is built to close.

The public arithmetic behind that step is free and runs in the browser:
https://fairvalueradar.com/position-size-calculator/

## Data sources

- Fundamentals: SEC EDGAR XBRL company facts — free, public, no API key,
  rate-limited to 10 requests per second, requires a descriptive User-Agent.
- Prices: paid delayed market data feed. Real-time was deliberately rejected.
- Every figure on a scorecard links back to the exact filing line it came from.

## Coverage: what filings alone can carry

Tested across nineteen large-cap companies, August 2026:

- Free cash flow computed in full for 18 of 19.
- Incremental margin computed for 12 of 19 — blocked where gross profit is not
  tagged, mostly pharma, utilities and banks.
- Remaining performance obligation tagged by 10 of 19.
- Four of the ten criteria cannot be built from filings at all — revenue runway,
  estimate revisions, guidance trajectory and catalyst calendar are all
  forward-looking, and forward-looking figures are never filed with the SEC.

## Pricing

- **Free, permanently** — €0, no card. Ten criteria and their directions, the
  full glossary with formulas, one company worked through end to end.
- **Monthly** — €9.90/month. 14-day trial, no card and no password. Every
  company, every scorecard, fair value, entry level, ATR-based stop,
  averaging-down zones, portfolio scoring.
- **Yearly** — €99/year. Ten months paid, two free. Same 14-day trial.

The public register of published levels is never part of any paid tier. See
below.

Machine-readable pricing: https://fairvalueradar.com/pricing.md

## The public register

Every entry level, stop and price target this product publishes is written to an
append-only register at the moment of publication, together with the market price
it was published against, the person who produced it, the method version, and the
period it is valid for. Nothing in it is ever edited or removed — the database
refuses UPDATE and DELETE outright. A correction is a new row that names the row
it replaces and states what changed, so the original stays visible.

The register is free to read and always will be. A producer of investment
recommendations must publish its methodology summary and its rolling twelve-month
list of recommendations where they can be reached free of charge, so paywalling a
track record is the one thing that is not available as an option — and it would
be the wrong thing to do regardless.

- Human-readable: https://fairvalueradar.com/track-record/
- JSON, uncredentialed, CORS open: https://fairvalueradar.com/api/calls

Levels are reviewed weekly against end-of-day closes. There is no intraday
updating and none is planned.

## Integrations

- Bring your own model key: Anthropic, OpenAI, Google, or a local model. Prompts
  never pass through Fairvalue Radar's inference.
- Portfolio: Interactive Brokers read-only, or CSV import from eToro,
  Trading 212, DEGIRO. Read-only by design — placing an order is not something
  the product is technically able to do.

## Key pages

- Home and product overview: https://fairvalueradar.com/
- Free DCF calculator, two-stage, runs client-side, no account:
  https://fairvalueradar.com/dcf-calculator/
- Free position size and tranche calculator — turns a fair value into an entry
  level, a ladder of buy tranches, an ATR-based stop and the amount at risk.
  Runs client-side, no account: https://fairvalueradar.com/position-size-calculator/
- Public register of every published level, append-only, free to read:
  https://fairvalueradar.com/track-record/
- Stock valuation tools compared, including where Fairvalue Radar is the wrong
  choice: https://fairvalueradar.com/stock-valuation-tools/
- Pricing, machine-readable: https://fairvalueradar.com/pricing.md

## Contact

hello@fairvalueradar.com